From: tsuk@edgard.eng.pko.dec.com
Subject: Empires of the Middle Ages Probability Tables 

                 Empires of the Middle Ages Probability Tables
                 ---------------------------------------------

One of the intriguing mechanisms in SPI's Empires of the Middle Ages
are the Year cards, which take the place of die rolls and table
lookups.  One problem with the Year cards, however, is that without
knowing the probability of various results, it's difficult to "play
the odds" properly, which is necessary in this game.

I have therefore created the following tables, showing the chances for
each result given the Effectiveness Rating.  These are straight
probabilities, and don't take into account such facets as the fact
that a successful Pillage always causes the Target's social state to
suffer.  I hope that these tables will be useful.

Any Effectiveness Rating less than the first entry in each table has
the same probabilities as the first entry; similarly for the last
entries.

                                        -Michael Tsuk


Conquest:       Target     Active Base
    C    -      0   -1       0   -1
0: 36%  64%    57%  43%     36%  64%
1: 39%  61%    54%  46%     39%  61% 
2: 46%  54%    50%  50%     45%  55%
3: 46%  54%    46%  54%     52%  48% 
4: 54%  46%    43%  57%     55%  45% 
5: 61%  39%    39%  61%     62%  38% 
6: 71%  29%    36%  64%     66%  34% 
7: 79%  21%    36%  64%     73%  27% 
8: 86%  14%    36%  64%     82%  18% 
9: 86%  14%    36%  64%     86%  14% 

Pillage:        Target     Active Base
    G    -      0   -1       0   -1
0: 18%  82%    54%  46%     71%  29%
1: 21%  79%    32%  68%     71%  29%
2: 25%  75%    25%  75%     75%  25%
3: 29%  71%    21%  79%     79%  21%
4: 36%  64%    14%  86%     82%  18%
5: 36%  64%    11%  89%     82%  18%
6: 43%  57%    11%  89%     86%  14%
7: 43%  57%     7%  93%     89%  11%
8: 46%  54%     7%  93%     89%  11%
9: 46%  54%     7%  93%     93%   7%

Ruling:                     Fortification:  Active Base
   +1    0   -1                 F    -        0   -1 
0: 25%  57%  18%            0:  0%  100%     32%  68%
1: 32%  50%  18%            1: 11%   89%     32%  68%
2: 43%  43%  14%            2: 21%   79%     39%  61%
3: 50%  36%  14%            3: 37%   63%     43%  57%
4: 54%  32%  14%            4: 53%   47%     50%  50%
5: 57%  29%  14%            5: 58%   42%     57%  43%
6: 61%  28%  11%            6: 63%   37%     64%  36%
7: 64%  29%   7%            7: 68%   32%     68%  32%
8: 68%  28%   4%            8: 74%   26%     71%  29%
9: 68%  32%   0%            9: 74%   26%    100%   0%

Diplomacy:                  Leader Check:
    C    T    -             1: 14%
0:  4%  29%  67%            2: 11%
1:  4%  32%  64%            3:  7%
2:  4%  36%  60%            5:  7%
3:  4%  39%  57%            9:  4%
4:  4%  46%  50%
5:  7%  46%  47%
6: 11%  46%  43%
7: 13%  45%  42%
8: 18%  43%  39%