Bruce Costello - Mar 31, 2009 6:51 pm (#2065 Total: 2073) Represented in Avatar by the Best of the Criminal Scum RDR - Potential Play Balance Issue - 1 Some weeks ago PeterMC raised the possibility that a certain PRC gambit is irresistable and a virtual certain game winner. To recap, his opening is to put virtually the entire PRC fleet into the South China Sea on move one, including the amphib with three units and the maximum three at-sea light units. From there, depending on the US side reaction, the PRC either begins massive air attacks on Taiwan or moves his fleet into the Sulu Sea, from where he threatens a forking attack on the Spratleys and the (auto-game winner) Guam. The thesis is that the US side has too few units early in the game to respond to these AND attacks on Taiwan. Peter reported winning 5 out of 5 games using this challenging gambit. And it WAS challenging. But I spent several days looking closely at the problem and believe I have come up with a counter. I will put this into my next post. Bruce Costello - Mar 31, 2009 7:11 pm (#2066 Total: 2073) BookmarkEmail to Friend Represented in Avatar by the Best of the Criminal Scum RDR - Potential Play Balance Issue - 2 After exhaustive study I decided that my initial US setup is still fundamentally sound. I made one modification - the US F-16 on Okinawa was placed instead in Kyushu with the Japanese air units, thus a massive quantity of air units exists right at the start of the game to give the US side the option to rebase a deadly amount of airpower where needed. I then went through a step-by-step to determine precise US counters to the gambit, in its multiple variations. I came up with a flow chart, represented as generic moves/countermoves, including hit probabilities. 1. The US player still moves towards combining at-sea fleet with the large Japanese/American force from Kyushu in the East China Sea. 2. The air forces on Kyushu make the rebasing to Taiwan on a move of choice to the US player. 3. If the PRC moves towards Guam, the US player detaches a large battlegroup to intercept. There must be enough units in this group to attack all PRC escorts and get very good odds (80%+) of attacking and sinking all at-sea PRC land units. # If the PRC earlier breaks off a small invasion force for the Spratleys (say, two escorts and a lite unit), ignore it. The fewer escorts to the main fleet, the better. # Optimal naval interception should take place in the Central Philippines Sea. If unable due to requirements of defending Taiwan, then make the move as soon as the PRC fleet enters that sea, and prep for a battle in the sea area containing Guam. # Keep the three CVN's, a small escort, and the SSGN's in the E. China Sea. Optimally, there will be twelve anti-land factors in this force; sufficient to probably destroy two PRC steps ashore in Taiwan per turn in an Op 15, or even enter Taiwan in an Op 13 (this latter is highly risky - make sure enough attrition has been accomplished against PRC air units to protect most of the CVN's before even considering this). 4. Move the air stack to Taiwan at a time optimally suited for defense of that island. This may be after the first air raid or before - sometimes it is best to attrit the PRC a bit by Taiwanese units, sometimes better to move early. This move should be dictated by the PRC moves and necessity to move at sea. 5. Use the two land units on Okinawa to judiciously reinforce Taiwan. 6. If somehow luck (say, a double move for example) allows the destruction of a Spratley attack, this would take pressure off to an enormous extent. But don't count on it. 7. The battle for Taiwan will be a very close thing. Very close. Even with the US counter to the "PeterMC PRC Gambit", I can't say odds of a US victory are much better than 40% as of this time. BUT, I've only played two games so far - one a US, the other a PRC, victory. I invite others to play through this and post their results here. -BC Bruce Costello - Mar 31, 2009 7:17 pm (#2067 Total: 2073) Represented in Avatar by the Best of the Criminal Scum Flowchart Here's the flowchart. As depicted, it represents a generic version of the proposed counter-plan of operations. Moves in real games will not likely follow the exact same sequence as shown here. This is intended as an aide to players and includes some information, such as an optimally sized US battlegroup for detachment against the PRC main fleet, range of likely hits, and so on. Use as you will. Feel free to ask any questions. Attachments: RDR-Peters Gambit Flow Chart backup.JPG (178 KB) (45 Downloads) Bruce Costello - Mar 31, 2009 7:30 pm (#2068 Total: 2073) Represented in Avatar by the Best of the Criminal Scum More on Play Balance I do not believe a serious play balance issue exists here. 1. Early on I had discussions with Ty, who represented the playtesters. The Spratley-Taiwan simultaneous capture was included in the game mainly as a play balancer, as I understand it. The playtesters early on found the PRC side was having a lot of problems winning anywhere near half the time, so this measure was taken. 2. This puts the major strain of impeccable planning onto the US side. As I've attempted to show, if both sides are playing at a high degree of proficiency, the game is closely balanced. 3. There are so many permutations available that many gambits were not discovered early on. Peter's solution took some time to develop and this particular problem did not arise until now. 4. While I've furnished what I believe is a good and practical solution, it has not been thouroughly gamed as of yet. Again, I invite interested gamers to try it and give a report here. While solo play is common and acceptable, face-to-face gaming has a premium, especially for this issue! 5. There is no playbalance issue because the optional victory conditions and their advanced variant in the upgrade bypass the issue of the Taiwan-Spratley auto victory by using differing victory conditions at least 50-60% of the time. I also believe that this rule, together with the other upgrades, will expand the game into new spheres of playability and enjoyment. 6. For those who still feel flummoxed (sp?), please feel absolutely free to discard the auto-victory condition Spratley-Taiwan and simply go by the other stated conditions for winning. This may, or may not, be an issue in refereed tournament play. So far though I know of no scheduled tournaments. -BC