Tigers in the Mist Unofficial Strategy Guide by Mircea Pauca (mircea dot pauca at gmail dot com) v1.20, Aug 24th, 2008 This file aims to increase the enjoyment and level of play for the recent classic wargame _Tigers in the Mist_ (Ray Freeman/GMT). Given the framework of simple, fast rules generating irreversible attrition with substantial randomness, the players must supply the decisions for maneuver using an elegant three-impulse system. While extreme luck for one side cannot be overcome even by the best players, the advice below seeks to give the reader a better idea of the typical middle-ground situations. The intention is to advance the current state of the art, or to give ideas to anyone who might program a good AI for _Tigers_. The article is based on many years of PBEM and face-to-face play experience, mine and that of several worthy opponents. Special thanks to Tom Thornsen for reviewing an earlier version. Without rule adjustments, I feel the US/Allied defenders have some advantage, especially using the play style presented here. I wrote this article with the Campaign in mind, but it also applies to any scenario. "[Backgammon] is a game of skill and luck. If you win it's skill; if you lose it's luck." === General Flow of the Battle === * Dec. 16-17: Germans' abundant forces, more than they can use in the limited space available, need to open holes to exploit. They should press fiercely for attrition: "Move to fight, to move to fight again". The Allied defense is precarious and could give ground, using wisely the moderate flow of reinforcements. Temporary 4SP strongpoints are handy to delay, for a brief time, the rampant Nazi monster. * Dec. 18-19: The US tries to consolidate positions and build a reliable defensive line using 18-1 reinforcements. German forces, especially strong units, are becoming scarcer and attacks should be selective, aiming to re-gain freedom for deep maneuver: "Fight to move". Both sides should try hard to obtain or deny the early "release" of elite Panzer reinforcements. Dec.19 is the culminating point for the US defensive system, "the Day without Reinforcements". * Dec.20-22: If the situation hasn't been decided earlier by a breakthrough, now Germans will make final desperate attempts. They are usually so depleted that even one-unit, 3SP defenses become valuable (but don't rely on them!). Allied defender's losses are the most important factor (and random outcome) in this game, influencing both the options for maneuver and further attrition. German losses accumulate and become important in the longer term, leading to the offensive bogging down and 'culminating'. The dynamics of any battle is very unstable, due to positive feedback. The amplification factor built in _Tigers_ (like a compound interest) is 1.15x per day-turn. For each 1 SP less defenders, there are on average 0.5 SP less defender losses, each of which means 0.3 SP more attacker losses, so 1+0.5*0.3=1.15 SP less defenders next day. The effect is actually much stronger due to maneuver options: if that 1SP is the last in an area, more forces are needed to defend behind the hole, and the overall position is stretched. Decisions and/or luck interact with this dynamic, each positive or negative event sends a "wave" of consequences to the future. Luck doesn't have to compensate (gambler's fallacy) but it dilutes with even more luck in unknown directions. Early luck is the most important, and the art of both players is to make the most of it by making good events chain, but isolate the consequences of each bad event. "Let the goods be added, let the bads be washed" (Romanian saying. It rhymes in our language !) For a better valuation of positions, I propose new measures of force: * Resistance Points = Allied Strength points + # of units (includes the improved holding power of multi-unit defenses) Optionally, may add the # of entrenched units. * Assault Points = German SP - # of units takes out of account the abundant 1SP remnant units. * Elan Points = Sum of what exceeds 2SP per unit (German) essential to keep going the punching 9-10 SP attacks. With these statistics, the forces are not so unbalanced. * Dec.16: 186:66 SP (2.81:1) but 55 EP and 114 AP:101 RP * overall 291:222 SP but 79 EP and 178 AP:316 RP. AP:RP losses are on average around 1:2 for easy 1-2 SP targets - what a German maneuver strategy ultimately seeks, but around 1:1 against heavy defenses. There is real hope for the Allies ! === Some Statistical Facts First === In the table below are given the probabilities for 8 attacking firers to clear an area of defenders. 8 is a typical number of survivors, including artillery fire. Against 1SP defenses weaker attacks are usually made, but strong defenses may inflict more casualties (on the maximum 10 SP) so the chances to clear the area are even smaller. Various attackers' probability to hit are used: 20% = Infantry-type against entrenched infantry. 30% = Inf against unentrenched, or armor on entrenched. 40% = Armor against unentrenched units. Def 20% 30% 40% ========================= 1SP 83.2% 94.2% 98.3% 2SP 49.7% 74.5% 89.4% 1+1 34.9% 57.7% 75.8% 3SP 20.3% 44.8% 68.5% 2+1 10.7% 26.5% 45.7% 4SP 5.6% 19.4% 40.6% 2+2 3.3% 12.1% 27.5% 3+1 1.6% 6.4% 15.6% 3+2 0.5% 2.9% 9.4% 3+3 0.1% 0.7% 3.2% More detailed calculations, including all tactical factors (chance of artillery, combined arms, rivers, OOS) and the effects of defender effectiveness on attack fire, are performed in my series of Predictor spreadsheets. They also track the actual results from a game and display a graph of comparative luck. Please contact me if you want it. === Advice for US Defenders === * Forecasting how the battle will flow is essential to an effective defense. The US side is delicate to play well and tolerates few mistakes. Where you put a reinforcement now will affect all that happens 2-3 days in the future ! Place infantry where it will be entrenched in typical cases. The best defense stays where it is for the longest time possible, needing the least disruptive re-adjustments. Beware that any Allied unit that moves during a turn is not going to be able to move again until AFTER the Germans first impulse of the next turn. The German is going to get a shot at them before they can entrench, or they may get their supply cut until then. [Tom T] I advocate early, strong reactions to threats and opportunities for both sides instead of piecemeal moves. They usually save much more trouble and forces needed later, but can add small critical risks in they event of collapse. Non-critical moves can wait until the third impulse unless there is an immediate threat that must be dealt with. * DO: STRONG multi-unit defenses on a SHORT line. 6 SP per area will usually hold 3 days against the strongest attacks, the Germans will take heavy losses and need a steady flow of scarce fresh forces to make a hole. Don't worry too much about flexibility: in the day a reinforcement is brought on, the line is so strong that you can well bet the game on all such positions holding. You will have one day's warning if the situation is about to turn bad. In emergencies, 4 SP (1+3* is best) still has some 90% chance to hold for 2 days. Mixed armor with infantry (entrenched if possible) allows no strong attack to go unpunished, quickly melting German Elan. 6SP also give the bonus of two US artillery calls. But beware, ANYTHING can happen within Tigers' mechanism! I've seen a 6SP defense falling in one attack and even a 7SP falling in one day (2 impulses, including a repeat attack in place of fallen attackers}. But... this only shows how much time I've lost with this game ;-) The best mid-game line is the objective for the '3 Days' scenario or around it: Arlon-Martelange-Bastogne-Noville- (then Tintigny-Neufchateau-Nives-Sprimont-Bertogne)- Houffalize (or Gouvy)-Vielsalm-Ligneuville-Waimes- (or Stavelot-Malmedy)-Elsenborn (or Hoffrai)-Eupen- Roetgen (or Walheim). Keep the line short at all costs! Make it especially strong at crossroad "pivots" where 1 area falling will need 2 or more positions behind to cover it, and withdraw from threatened salients early enough to avoid getting OOS. * DO: 1SP sacrificial delayers. They gain time to bring reinforcements or entrench infantry just behind them at the last moment. They make the enemy use forces, and if cleared they clog the roads and make other attackers use more movement to move beyond them. Sometimes they even hold by miracles, but don't count on that! 2SP is also very likely to fall against a maximum attack. Two 1SP hold better but you risk losing both units - so retreat one of them if possible, increasing the staying power elsewhere. 3+1 is vastly better than 3 SP. * DON'T rely on 1-unit, 2-3 SP defenses (except at the end when Germans are very depleted). They are the best Christmas gifts the US can make to the German, allowing him to effectively use the Panzer concentrations. One 6SP position is much, much better than two 3SP falling in turn. * Front-line as reserve: even if flexibility is important, don't keep the reserves for emergency responses behind the front but make them part of key positions. If the attacker has 'clogged' that area up to the stacking limits, some of the same defender units may move later and defend elsewhere too! The best freedom of decision will come from possible multiple uses of reinforcements arriving just in time. Once the German engages you in an area, you cannot reinforce that area without having to attack (so make it strong early, or not at all). Another reason to keep reserves on the front, as once an area is engaged it may well not be reinforced. * Temporary concentrations (8-10 SP) so strong to deter any attacks on key crossroads (Bullingen, Eupen, Bastogne, Neufchateau, 'release objectives': Malmedy, Trois Ponts). They serve as a staging point for reinforcements that cannot reach other desired areas directly, and keep lateral movement open. Best brought in the last impulse of the preceding day. If not attacked next morning, they have gained time for infantry to entrench on the front and tanks to meet other pressing needs. * Entrench ! This increases the stopping power of infantry almost like 1SP per unit. But not when they could be encircled (ex.the 6SP in 41 Wahlerscheid), keep them ready to move out. * River lines help the defense - position engineers or infantry behind them one turn earlier if possible, to blow the bridge 80% or 40% of the time. Bridges are the engineer's specialty (so don't use them elsewhere except for really bad emergencies). Still keep in mind that ONE crossing can be seized with 90% chances by Skorzeny's English-speaking boys. A blown bridge is practically out of the game, as that position usually falls only if outflanked. With extremely good luck it takes two days to continue the direct offensive: 1) clear the near bank and bring an engineer; (Day D) 2) establish bridgehead and start building work (D+1 imp 1) 2') rebuild the bridge (D+1 imp 1, if bridge gods help) 3) attack stronger across it, clear the far bank (D+1 imp 2) 4) exploit. (D+1 imp 3) * Defend fiercely the SS Panzer release areas. If possible, just in front of them (Waimes, Vielsalm); or in them (Malmedy until 18-2, Trois Ponts until 19-2), with major strength (7-8 SP) so that Germans are deterred from attacking, and/or cannot get Superiority without extreme luck. * Make a deep retreat when hard pressed - so that substantial attacker forces cannot reach the new position for one turn. The US south flank may fall back early to Arlon and around Martelange as the maze of secondary roads is risky to hold with few units, and invites outflanking and encirclements. * Counterattack scarcely and only with very good reason. Usually the Allies cannot afford the losses. Strong German attacks with many survivors deter counterattacks well. Still it is a good way 1) to bring strong reinforcements to critical crossroads and keep the front narrow (Bastogne, Monschau, Eupen etc.), or 2) if likely to wipe out a weak but important bridgehead (La Roche, Eupen, Malmedy) so as to delay crossing, or 3) cut precarious GE supply if it depends on only one road. * Avoid encirclements (or don't put new units where they are likely to get encircled), retreat units early enough and move them to help build strong positions. This requires a bit of forecasting, that still can be perturbed by luck. But even encircled and out of supply, units become free to move to other OOS areas - a deadly move! Just one US unit in Monschau can cut the supply of two large German spearheads, cutting their Elan just at the critical moment. Bloody counterattacks to freedom (even if not historical) can still save some forces. * Beware of _any_ holes in the line! Even if the attacker cannot use them to move deep, they can be used for supply (Ray Freeman's rule interpretation). A hole left at Ettelbruck on 16-3 and the Germans in Monschau on 17-1 are supplied 'behind the US lines', they can disengage and exploit to Zone D and Aachen! End of game. * Psychology: "Passive-aggresive" is the most effective style, intended to cause maximum frustration and delay. Combines 'dare me' hard key points with sacrifices sticky like honey. Stay alert if opponent makes mistakes first ! === Advice for German Attackers === * Everyone to battle ! A simple rule is to use (almost) every unit in every turn to damage the defense. Germans must press, press, press until the Allies can take no more. A 'tight' offensive often is 'just against the limits': 4 units/10 SP stacking, maximum movement for most units. Some flexibility will be needed, but don't leave units just as a 'reserve' if unlikely to exploit. If there isn't a breach in reach, use them to attack other front sectors nearby. * Maneuver principles (from Robert Leonhard): - Preempt (Get to valuable places _before_ the opponent) - Dislocate (Make enemy be at irrelevant place and time) - Disrupt (modeled in Tigers only by the Combined Arms bonus) The original idea is to avoid costly attritional fights against the enemy strength and use attrition only as a tool to open one breach for the easy and fruitful part, exploiting it. The ideal is Sun Tzu's "victory without battle", but if not, a short, uneven, unfair combat. Keep alert, find and exploit any flaw in the opposing position, use mental and physical agility. "Flow like water" around the enemy strength and through the breach, to seize the zones of value behind it. Force the enemy into unfavorable combats. In TitM this does not work so well, as a few breaches are easily sealed one area back, and combat is back to attrition! You need *many* breaches so that the defense is so thinly spread that the 2nd impulse breaches overwhelm the defenders' *ability to react* (not necessarily its overall force, if much of it has already been committed elsewhere). Seek the easy combats first, but if they aren't available, the best remaining to employ all your forces ! * Via Vita (A road is life!). Organize the offensive around the main roads as axes of advance (the Soviets used 'directions' as synonyms for roads). Contrary to historical practice, use foot infantry on or around main roads, where they can keep the pace with faster forces [1+2+2=5MP]. On a secondary road, with other units clogging the way, infantry cannot move even two areas away! [3+3>5]. Mechanized forces can use well the secondary roads [2+3+3=8MP] but the best mobile reserves should wait in crossroads for flexibility. Of special value are front-line crossroads that open several roads behind them, stretching the front. But if the opponent is careful, they will be the best defended. So open nearby holes on secondary roads, to outflank them and force enemy retreats or, worse for them, encirclement. {Beware of getting "too smart". Early, strong attack on Bastogne may bring better final outcome than a small breach at Noville, hard to exploit on secondary roads} The northern sector with Monschau and Eupen has outstanding value even if the road to there is secondary and you lose one day's opportunity to attack just marching to get there. * Two Up, One Back (and Give 'em a Hot Meal) ! Tigers is one of the few wargames I know where this old military cliche actually pays to use it ! Against moderate sized defenses (30-60% chance to break through) make groups of two strong, breaching attacks, and keep a variable-sized reserve in that crossroads behind, to exploit in the sector that falls, or *either* of them if both fall. The *choice* will stretch the defenders. Against stronger defenses, use less reserve (maybe the 1SP remnants laying around just-in-case). After easy mop-ups it's best to predesignate a strong exploitation force. * Traffic control: making it flow with minimal waste due to road congestion is a fine dynamic Sokoban-like puzzle (fortunately, much easier). First think globally what units to allocate to each combat, then how each unit moves in the adequate order. A trick is to think of units that can attack only one place, or destinations that can be reached only by certain units. Do these, the remaining problem simplifies. It's well to think in advance where you want your units at the end of a turn. If your infantry is behind your armor or mech, they will not be able to move through them and then into an enemy occupied area. Don't block your infantry with your armor and mech. Again, large attacking groups need to stay on or near the main roads so the infantry doesn't get caught to the rear! [Tom T] * Concentrate force. This should be obvious, but many players make sub-optimal attacks when they have more forces. I recommend 6:1 (or 4:1 with 1SP remnants if non-critical), 9:2, 10:3. Greater superiority shortens the battle and decreases total losses, on average if not in each case. Multiples of 3SP also bring a 'free' extra arty call. Stronger defenses should be either avoided or some selected critical points assailed *early* to start the attrition, with a clear purpose and fresh forces ready next turn to replace the losses and sustain the drive. Even if the exploiting reserve becomes weaker, that may be better than a strong reserve remaining useless because a breach isn't made at all. * Strike early if at all - before defending infantry entrenches, or reinforcements can strengthen that point. Also this may cut lateral communication or take a bridge while the infantry is freshly arrived and the risk to blow is only 20% (ex. Eupen for all these reasons). Yet another reason is to annihilate weak units before they can retreat elsewhere. Sometimes disregard the need for strength, as a 7:4 attack *NOW* may be much better than nothing. Even if there are little chances to clear an area, it is best to contest it before the US has a chance to reinforce it. Once you manage to get a unit into an area, any attempt by the US to reinforce that area will require them to attack there. They will rarely wish to do that with strong German survivors. * Delayed attacks. Resist strenuously the temptation to attack everywhere in the first impulse. Wait in some areas (especially in those already pinned from the previous day, or where defenses are stronger and have little chance to fall in one attack). Attacking only the easiest points increases later flexibility. After opening a hole, you can disengage some units from nearby front-line sectors and pour through it! Voila, more units that can reach deep. Also the defender may be tempted to weaken the old front to plug other holes. Then attack there with units brought from behind, and units on the old front disengage and exploit. The essence of maneuver thinking is to often put the enemy "in the horns of a dilemma" until they can no longer cope. * Preserve the 'Elan' of strong units (3SP or more). 1-2 of them are needed to make 9-10 SP attacks. Use them as the 'meat' in sandwiches with 2SP 'bread' units, and get the 1SP 'crumbs' out of the way ! - Attack 3 inf with: 3pz,3pz,2inf,2inf. - Attack 3 tank with: 2pz,2pz,3inf,3inf. * 1SP remnant units: they become abundant and 'expendable' in the mid-game. Get them out of the way of reinforcements. They still have good uses, other than main attacks: - 4x1 or 3x1 can attack with a reasonable chance to clear non-critical 1SP defenses, or pin areas, cut lateral communications etc. With extreme luck a 4:4 attack may even win, it happened against me once ! - 1:1 "lottery tickets" (like 1pz/26 trying Wiltz on 16-2 if Holzhum falls) - Seize objectives in exploitation (the 'Preempt' principle) - Guard flanks in advance. - Cover all holes to keep the front 'supply-tight'. - Protect the flank areas where late game US reinforcements will enter: Luxemburg, Arlon. Two or three entrenched 1SP infantry units go a long way to holding them on 22-1. * Repeat attacks in the 'holes left' below the stacking limits by attacker losses in earlier failed attacks. 3:1, 2:1 and even 1:1 are worthwhile for a second chance in important sectors. 2:2 has too few chances, but a 3:2 could be tried if it's operation-winning (ex. Bastogne) * Encircle! (by cutting enemy supply). This ideal move of Blitzkrieg should be often threatened, but rarely happens in _Tigers_ if the defender is careful. It's an easy way to take defender units out of the decisive action if any opportunity presents itself (or is made to occur if immobile defenders have to stay behind supply bottlenecks). The attacker occupies all the supply roads, in most cases it's wise to make at the same time a pinning attack on the encircled units so that they cannot escape. No defending artillery, -10% fire effectiveness - that means half the normal attacker losses. The best example are the units of US 106th Division starting the battle on the Eifel Ridge. The obvious small encirclement is to attack Bleialf on 16-1 or 16-2 to encircle Auw. A larger encirclement can be made if Habscheid is cleared on 16-1, and the 2me/Flak is ready to attack St.Vith on 16-2, encircling Auw, Bleialf and Manderfeld. Even if the Flak dies those three areas can be attacked easier with OOS bonuses. Another opportunity at start is to encircle 2/3 of 2nd Inf.Div. in Wahlerscheid (2x3SP) if Udenbreth is cleared on 16-1 (with a good dose of luck) then Rocherath-Krinkelt can be attacked before the US units can withdraw. * Skorzeny's Special Forces: their best trick in 'maneuver warfare' thinking is road move confusion - used either on 17-1 to prevent 7th Armored Div reaching Noville and Houffalize (or even Weiswampach), or on 18-1 to prevent the Airborne from getting to Bastogne or near it (you may find other uses too...). Capturing a bridge is also useful if facing an engineer once in a game - so choose it wisely. Of course, this may fail too (10%), it happened to me. Battlefield confusion is the least useful, use it against a strong defensive concentration to reduce your losses. * Kampfgruppes from anything. Don't let historical or 'aesthetic' considerations prevent the forming of most effective attacks, regardless of unit designation. After 2-3 days units will be totally mixed up, so what? For a 'real' incentive to keep divisions together, see the Integrity bonus in my House Rules on www.grognard.com. * Follow the rewards! (Victory Point objectives) I've lost a Three Days scenario because I didn't make the bloody end-of-the-world attacks needed for 1-2 more Victory points. The long-term situation improved and I won the unofficial continuation as a Campaign, but that does not improve the Ladder standing :-) Wargamer's ethics can be strange. * Psychology: a "Type A personality" - the one proven to cause more heart attacks in oneself, competitors and subordinates - is the best to overwhelm the defender with timing and force: ultra-hurried and worried about efficiency, from the big picture to the relevant details. === German Openings === * 16-1 in the south is obvious: all infantry advances 1 area. They can do nothing else ! Echternach 8i (45.3%), Beaufort 9i (56.2%), Vianden 9i (88.0%), Holzhum 8i (46.4%). The main road to Arlon is very important; use PzLehr for a repeat attack if Echternach is weakened but still holds, or to exploit further. 10 SP can reach Consdorf, 7 SP (3me+4me) to Junglinster or even Luxemburg if the road is open. If Echternach holds stubbornly, prepare to outflank it from Beaufort on Dec.17. From Vianden you can exploit in two directions, 12 mobile SP should be ready for them: 3pz,3pz/2Pz; 1pz/26; eng; 1pz,3me/5FJ. Another use for 1pz/26 would be a crossing to Wiltz to get a bridgehead against Engineers while they are surprised. More often it's suicidal. * Marnach: the standard is to force the Clerf river with 5:2 (3me,2me/2Pz) to establish a bridgehead and start bridge repairs immediately. This sacrificial attack clears the area only 17.1% of times, and 39.4% weakens it to 1SP so that a 6:1 repeat attack may take it after the bridge is repaired. - Using only one mechanized unit is worse, it may not survive or become too weak and be wiped out in a counterattack. - An unconventional opening I proposed was to wait here and see if Holzhum and/or Lutzkampen fall, then outflank Marnach. If both fail, the 5:2 can still be done in 16-2. {Warning: risks increase ! If attacks on Lutzkampen or Habscheid fail, US are free to strengthen Marnach with their reserves ! I've seen 7SP} I think this gambit is best in the '3 Days' scenario where there are no large reinforcements to use the Dasburg-Marnach bridge. Ray Freeman's last rule adjustment, automatic repair on 16-3, also encourages using it. * Lutzkampen: Use 10 SP, various combinations are possible. I prefer 3pz,3me/116 from Krautscheid, and 2i,2i/560 to conserve the strong units. It is important for a chance to cross the Clerf to Burg Reuland on 16-2, possibly reaching St.Vith on 16-3 with 4-6 SP (keep them ready in Lichtenborn). * Habscheid - must be done on 16-1, with 2me/Flak ready to reach St.Vith on 16-2 and encircle 3 units, not just 1. The 2me could die (33.6%), but in the same impulse the defenders in Bleialf and Manderfeld will be out of supply. Not so bad. * Bleialf may wait for 16-2 when PzLehr can help. {Don't leave Prum empty, or an US unit may come back and save the usually doomed unit in Auw !} * Manderfeld is secondary. Strike it on 16-2 if no other better targets are available. KG Peiper (5+4) is better used towards Waimes, or behind Monschau, or even Dasburg. * Bucholz, Udenbreth: hard decisions between riskier openings with infantry on 16-1 or waiting for the SS Panzers on 16-2. These decisions are independent and may be combined. Good luck in any case, you will need it! - Bucholz is important to open the main road to Bullingen early, while the maximum defense is one unit. Together with breaches at Habscheid and Lutzkampen this can be deadly, as there are too few US 'fingers' to plug the holes with. Maximum is 1pz+9inf (35%), but 1+8 (StuG244+12VG; 29%) leaves place for a repeat attack with panzers in the 'hole' left by casualties. Else on 16-2 you can use 8+2 (56%). - If Udenbreth falls on 16-1, Rocherath-Krinkelt can be attacked on 16-2 and two units with 6SP will be encircled in Wahlerscheid. The maximum 16-1 attack is 9i:3* (adding the engineer in Olzheim) at 26.9%. - Wahlerscheid should be attacked if it's encircled, to prevent US units counterattacking to freedom. Maybe even if not encircled, if there are no easier ways to attrit the US. * Monschau: it's critical for overall success, as it opens 3 roads behind the front, attracting massive US reinforcements to this area. The 2 entrenched units with 3 SP will require the utmost effort: 7+3, using 6 panzer SP from 12SS. Move the lowly units in Schleiden away to open the way. Around 35% chance for a victory, and a better chance to reduce it to 1SP. If so, mass all mobile units not used elsewhere on the poor road behind Monschau. Moderate strength (10-15 SP) can pin 2 roads and press the third. For maximum pressure including strong threats to exploit to Eupen/Walheim you need 20-25 SP. From Monschau the Germans can press on the road to Aachen. The US cannot let the defense get 'up against the wall' because good reinforcements will be delayed. Eupen is a decisive crossroads (more than Bastogne!), so it will attract huge US forces not available elsewhere. Try to attack Elsenborn from the east to spare the scarce units coming through Monschau. Later, to get more forces beyond Monschau, disengage them from Elsenborn to the north, and attack Elsenborn itself with other fresh units from the east or south. - Another variant, good when Udenbreth falls on 16-1, is to hit Monschau only with 1+9 (with various mech. Flak units) and let the final 6+3 reserve from 12SS hit Elsenborn on 16-3 after others clean Rocherath-Krinkelt on 16-2. * The central 5th Panzerarmee has too few strong units. Reinforce its Elan moving behind it (ex. to Dasburg) the 4me+3me from Bitburg, and/or some Panzers from the north if they are not used on Dec. 16. Also, weaker armor and mech (ex. from Lehr) could help in the north and south. In one game, on Dec. 17 units from Lehr were in Spa and Arlon ! What _Tigers_ teaches best by practice is Moltke's sayings: "No plan survives the first contact with the enemy intact". "Plan on failure, prepare for success !" Wild swings of luck will occur in most games - but with skill and tenacity YOU, the Commander, can overcome local reverses and stand ready to exploit any opportunities for Victory. Thank you for reading and thinking on this ! but don't forget the real dead in real history. Comments, criticism, suggested improvements are welcome. Mircea Pauca (mircea dot pauca at gmail dot com) Bucuresti, Romania