FOR YOUR EYES ONLY
                          ==================
by Steven V. Cole
 
The following material is reprinted from issue #276 of the biweekly
military intelligence newsletter FOR YOUR EYES ONLY,  dated 14 Oct
1991, and is Copyright (c) 1991 by Tiger Publications, Box 8759,
Amarillo, TX 79114.  This column represents a small fraction of the
material from a single bi-weekly issue. Samples copies are $2;
subscriptions are $60 per year in the US, Canada, APO, and FPO.
 
======================
SOVIETS BUILDING NEW SUB CLASSES
 
.....The Soviets are building two new nuclear submarines at
Severodvinsk:
 
..*..Pantera: Similar to the Mike-class, small tail fin, no towed
sonar pod, launched in 1990, to commission in 1992.
..*..Puma: Not yet launched, larger than Pantera but unlikely to be an
SSBN type.
 
=====
AIRCRAFT CARRIER CYCLE TIME
 
.....US Navy aircraft carriers (in peacetime) operate on a cycle of 1
hour and 45 minutes per flight, known as 1+45. This is the basis for
fuel funding and training plans. But according to Commander Charles
Nash in the September Proceedings, this is not the best way to run a
carrier.
 
.....Nash proposes that the aircraft fly shorter missions, while using
about the same amount of fuel and making about the same number of
take-offs and landings. He makes these points:
 
..*..1+45 flights require tanker support and extra fuel tanks, which
increase costs and diverts the A-6 bombers from their own training.
..*..With the longer flights, the aircraft cannot afford to burn fuel
at higher rates for more realistic training. Indeed, more time is 
spent at low-speed cruise waiting for the 1+45 cycle to end than is
spent actually training. It is unheard of to assign aircraft to make
high-speed ''attacks'' on their own carriers (to train the defenses)
because this takes too much fuel. Shorter, more intense flights would
produce more hours of actual training.
..*..With shorter flights, the aircraft (and their electronics) would
suffer less wear-and-tear and overall maintenance costs would 
decrease.
..*..The Navy has become obsessed with a ''numbers game'' in which the
number of flight hours is the mark of success, whether or not it means
that the pilots are actually trained for combat.
..*..Shorter and irregular cycles would train deck crews for combat
operations.
 
=====
ROMANIAN ARTILLERY
 
.....Romania has developed several artillery systems and is offering
them for export. Some of the models include: 
 
..*..The Model-1989 self-propelled howitzer is similar to the Soviet
122mm 2S1 howitzer and uses a nearly identical turret. The Romanian
model is built on the MLI-84 armored personnel carrier and (unlike the
Soviet 2S1) has waterjets to improve amphibious speed.
..*..A self-propelled 120mm mortar is built on the MLVM armored
transporter chassis.
..*..Mountain units are a strong tradition with the Romanian Army, and
two mountain howitzers are in service: 76.2mm (weight 680kg, range
8.6km) and 100mm (1500kg, 10km).
..*..The M1977 towed 100mm anti-tank gun uses the same ammunition as
the Soviet D10 and T55. With anti-tank ammunition, the direct-fire
range is 1.1km. It can also fire a high-explosive shell to 20.7km, and
the Romanians claim they can hit individual tanks with indirect fire 
at ranges of 4km.
..*..Other systems include: a copy of the Soviet M46 130mm gun, a 
152mm howitzer (M81) that may be a Soviet D1 with a new barrel, and a
152mm gun (M1981) that may be a copy of the Soviet D20 with a longer
barrel.
 
=====
B-2 BOMBER
 
.....B-2 vs NAVY: The Air Force, in a bid to save the embattled 
bomber, is citing calculations that prove a squadron of eight B-2s
operating from the US with tanker support could deliver the same bomb
tonnage per day as an entire carrier air group with thousands of men
and nearly 100 aircraft.
 
.....VOTE: The B-2 survived a vote in the Senate 51-48 on 25 Sept, 
the narrowest margin ever in the Senate for the program.
 
.....NUMBERS: The Air Force plans to tell Congress that it needs 54-60
B-2s. In the event of a regional war (e.g. Korea, Gulf), each would 
fly 8 missions over 10 days to deliver the required tonnage.
 
.....MISSILE: The Pentagon has disclosed that there is a technical
fault in the precision air-to-ground conventional missile intended for
the B-2. (This is presumably the TSSAM; see FYEO #268, 24 June 91.)
 
=====
ADVANCED AIRCRAFT PROGRAMS
 
.....C-17 AIRLIFTER made its first flight on 15 Sept. On the 9th
mission it made a landing in less than 2,000 feet of runway.
 
.....YAK-141: The Yakolev Bureau will continue flight tests of the
Yak-141 VSTOL fighter, hoping to reverse the Soviet cancellation.
 
.....Yakolev wants to sell the Yak-141 to the Air Force, saying that
the Gulf War has proven the vulnerability of runways. 
 
.....MiG-29: The new fly-by-wire MiG-29M is entering service.
 
.....F-22 NAME: The Air Force abruptly cancelled plans to announce a
nickname (widely rumored to be ''Superstar'') for the F-22 Advanced
Technology Fighter.
 
=====
ADVANCED MISSILE PROGRAMS
 
.....US ANTI-TANK: Further technical problems with AAWS-M have 
extended the 36-month engineering and manufacturer's development
program to 56 months. It is expected that a product improvement 
program for the Dragon will be required to keep it in service until
AAWS-M reaches the field. This program will focus on extending the
range and enhancing the ability to penetrate reactive armor.
 
.....In recent tests, the Dragon missile hit its target 75% of the
time while the Swedish Bofors Bill scored hits just under 50% of the
time.
 
.....VT1: Aerospatiale (France) and MBB (Germany) are jointly
developing a new short-range anti-aircraft missile known as VT1, which
can be fired by Roland and Crotale launchers. It is a less ambitious
project than the abandoned plan to modernize Roland and may have a
broader export market.
 
.....IRAN AND SYRIA are cooperating to build a factory that can 
produce Scud missiles.
 
=====
GROUND COMBAT UPDATE
 
.....US ARMY MILITARY POLICE are promoting the idea that they are a
mobile ''light cavalry'' security force capable of dealing with
security, counter-sabotage, and counter-infiltration, and should not
be employed as simply a static guard, law enforcement, or traffic
control organization.
 
.....CALICO ARMS is offering a new series of 9mm submachineguns using
helical magazines holding 50 or 100 rounds.
 
=====
ARMORED VEHICLE UPDATE
 
.....BMD-3 vehicles are entering service with Soviet parachute units.
The 12-ton vehicles are an improvement over earlier versions of the 
BMD and include a 30mm autocannon, plus the ubiquitous missile
launcher.
 
.....The Philippines rolled out their first two locally-built armored
cars on 1 Oct. The Hari-Digma-I is based on the US V-150 and the
British Simba. The Hari-Digma-II is a local design. Their armor is
proof against .30-cal bullets. The vehicles carry machineguns and have
a top speed of 120km/hour (75mph) and a range of 450km (280 miles).
 
=====
GULF CRISIS: NOTES AND OBSERVATIONS
 
.....OIL FIRES: Crews had extinguished 499 of the 640 burning wells by
26 Sept.
 
.....WAR COSTS: The Pentagon estimates the cost of the war as $61
billion. (This includes some lost aircraft that will not be replaced
and the salaries of troops that would have been paid with or without a
war.) Allies pledged $54 million (of which $46 billion has actually
been received), and Congress appropriated up to $15 billion to cover
any expenses not paid by the allies. Saudi Arabia still owes $4.1
billion, Kuwait $3.5 billion, Japan $100 million, and South Korea $100
million. The Administration agreed to a Japanese ''reinterpretation''
of their pledge, lowering it by $668 million (the money being diverted
to Britain and France).
 
.....IRAQ has offered single men a $940 bounty to marry widows of men
killed in the Gulf War.
 
.....DAZZLERS: In addition to electromagnetic systems used by some
Iraqi tanks to jam incoming wire-guided missiles, some Iraqi tanks 
were fitted with ''dazzlers'' which emitted flashing lights that were
intended to distract or blind the gunners guiding the missiles.
 
.....SUPERGUNS: Contrary to speculation that the flanged sections 
might be part of a multi-chamber gun, the superguns were designed as
single-barrel in-line cannons. The huge bolted flanges were the
solution to the impossibility of building and transporting one-piece
gun barrels up to 500-feet long. UN inspectors test fired the small 
gun (350mm bore, 250 feet long), and the shell fell into the desert 
160 miles away, eight times farther than any conventional artillery 
can fire. The largest guns would have had a range of 700km or more.
 
=====
LESSONS FROM THE GULF WAR
 
.....Information, field expedients, stories, and lessons from the
troops:
 
..*..The S-2s (intelligence officers in battalions and brigades) did
not perform well, largely because they had never been given the
opportunity to train in their mission during peacetime. Units in
garrison routinely use the S-2 as the ''miscellaneous jobs officer,''
staff the position with a junior officer, and rob the S-2 section of
personnel to build up other sections. ..*..Naval aviation cannot
effectively strike targets more than 200 miles from their carriers
without tanker support. The Navy found itself ''hostage'' to Air Force
land-based tankers (which have their own missions). The Navy lacks a
penetrating bomb similar to the Air Force I-2000. The Navy also 
laments that it did not cater to the media and did not gain a
proportionate share of the publicity (which affects later budgets).
 
=====
UNITED STATES
 
.....THE US AIR FORCE has announced a reorganization. The Tactical and
Strategic Air Commands were to be merged into the Air Combat Command,
but the later Bush nuclear proposals put SAC under a joint national
command. Some airlift units will be taken away from Military Airlift
Command and given to theater commanders. The Logistics and Signal
commands are being merged into a Material Command. Communications
Command will become an ''agency,'' a lower-level headquarters. The
current force of 24 active and 12 reserve wings will be cut to 16+12 
by 1993 and to 15+9 by 1999. All 19 ''Air Division'' headquarters will
be disbanded.
 
.....The Senate voted down (67-33) Pentagon plans to spend $250 
million for the rail-mobile MX system.
 
.....THE US ARMY has withdrawn its Vulcan 20mm air defense guns from
Europe because they are obsolete and hard to maintain. The replacement
(ADATS) won't be available for several years. The Army wants to use
Stinger missile teams in M3 Bradley vehicles as an interim system, but
there is no money for that plan.
 
.....THE US NAVY: The battleship Wisconsin was returned to mothball
status on 30 Sept.
 
.....PENTAGON: General Colin Powell was confirmed on 30 Sept for
another two-year term as Chairman of the JCS. 
 
.....''If Congress will simply leave me alone and let me manage the
department in intelligent fashion, we'll save a lot of money.''
--Defense Secretary Cheney, testimony to Congress, 2 Oct 91
 
.....MEDIA: In the first nine months of 1991, 41 journalists were
killed covering wars and other conflicts. In all of 1990, only 36 
died.
 
=====
SOVIET UNION
 
.....Colonel-General Burlakov, commander of the Soviet forces in
Germany, denied German newspaper reports that his forces had nuclear
weapons on German territory.
 
.....The Soviets are soliciting international bids for the design of
small nuclear power stations.
:::::
 
EASTERN EUROPE
 
.....CZECHOSLOVAKIA is expected to quietly divide into two countries
within a few months. The Slovaks are unhappy with the present federal
structure, but might accept some form of loose economic union.
 
.....Czechoslovakia and Germany signed a friendship treaty on 7 Oct.
 
.....ROMANIA: Rioting coal miners forced the resignation of Prime
Minister Petre Roman.
 
.....BULGARIA and GREECE signed a treaty of friendship on 7 Oct.
 
=====
WESTERN EUROPE
 
.....NATO may offer East European nations associate status.
 
.....WEU: Britain and Italy called for a European military reaction
force under control of the Western European Union. France complained
that due to treaty links between NATO and the WEU, this would give the
US partial control of the force.
 
.....CYPRUS proposed demilitarizing the island if Turkey will pull its
troops out of the northern sector.
 
.....NETHERLANDS announced it would remove nuclear anti-submarine
weapons from its P-3 Orion patrol planes in accordance with similar US
moves.
 
=====
MIDDLE EAST
 
.....WATER: A regional conference on water is scheduled to be held in
Turkey this fall. Syria and Iraq object to Turkish control of the
Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. Syria said it would not attend if Israel
did because Israel has ''no right to a single drop of water in this
region.'' Egypt said it would go to war if any country tried to 
control the upper Nile River.
 
.....IRAN announced that 50 Iraqi tanks captured prior to 1988 had 
been refitted and issued to the Revolutionary Guard and that
''hundreds'' of additional tanks would be refitted.
 
.....MOROCCO, which turned down a 1989 US offer to sell 24 F-16
fighters, is now interested in the planes again.
 
.....SAUDI ARABIA: The Saudi National Guard is interested in acquiring
heavy tanks and will test the British Challenger.
 
=====
ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
 
.....CHINA celebrated its 42nd anniversary of communist rule with a
pledge to remain communist.
 
.....The first 3 of 24 Soviet Su-27 fighters on order have been
delivered to Shenyang. Further deliveries may be slowed (or cancelled)
by the disruptions in the USSR.
 
.....INDIA plans to reduce its dependance on Soviet arms.
 
.....INDIA plans to produce Soviet Su-37 lightweight fighters at the
HAL factories.
 
..........The chief minister of Assam State (northeast India) said 
that the local rebels had support from China and Bangladesh and 
claimed to have captured documents proving this.
 
.....JAPAN launched its first 7,200-ton Aegis destroyer (the DDG-173
Kongo) on 26 Sept. It will be finished in March 93, at which time it
will be the largest warship in the Japanese Navy, and larger than most
WWII Japanese light cruisers.
 
.....NORTH KOREA said it wanted a reunification plan that would leave
the two Koreas under their own governments within a federal union.
 
.....North Korea demanded that the US stop pressuring it to accept 
IAEA inspection of its nuclear facilities until it removes its own
nuclear weapons from the peninsula.
 
.....North Korea welcomed US plans to pull out land-based nuclear
weapons, but demanded that aircraft bombs also be removed.
 
.....SOUTH KOREA took over the last US-held sectors of the DMZ on 
1 Oct.
 
.....South Korea wants to buy four batteries of Patriot missiles from
the US for $600 million.
 
.....General Dynamics has denied Turkish reports that South Korea will
buy its F-16s from the Turkish assembly plant. 
 
.....SINGAPORE has ordered four minesweepers from Sweden for delivery
in 1994-5.
 
.....TAIWAN: France approved the sale of six unarmed 3,200-ton
Lafayette-class  frigates to Taiwan for $2 billion on 27 Sept. The 
deal includes 10 more ships to be built in Taiwan for another $2.8
billion. China protested.
 
.....China has reportedly warned Taiwan not to ''try to achieve
independence.''
 
.....THAILAND: Another 111 separatist rebels accepted amnesty and
surrendered their weapons on 27 Sept, bringing the three-year total
to 680.
 
.....VIETNAM: The Soviets admitted that Soviet troops fired
anti-aircraft weapons during the Vietnam War and shot down the first
US aircraft lost in the war.
 
=====
AFRICA
 
.....CHAD reported that troops loyal to former President Habre were
raiding the northern regions from Libya. France said it would support
President Deby so long as he continued political reforms.
 
.....ETHIOPIA: International aid was manipulated by the Mengistu 
regime to keep itself in power.
 
.....Some 230,000 land mines have been removed from various areas of
Ethiopia since the end of the war.
 
.....Police fired shots in the air to disperse 10,000 anti-government
demonstrators in Addis Ababa.
 
.....SOMALIA and ETHIOPIA reached agreement on 30 Sept to control
skirmishes and banditry along the border.
 
.....SOUTH AFRICA: The ARMSCOR company laid off 25% of its work force
due to cuts in the SA defense budget.
 
.....The ANC refused to disband its military wing.
 
.....TOGO: Six people were killed and 30 injured in two unsuccessful
coup attempts during 1 Oct. The rebellious troops returned to their
barracks.
 
.....UGANDA reported that two unidentified aircraft had bombed Arua on
21 Sept, the third such incident in two years.
 
.....ZAIRE: The situation appeared calm after rioting by troops and
others left 100 dead and 1,500 injured on 23-26 Sept. France and
Belgium flew in paratroops to keep order and evacuate thousands of
civilians. US Air Force planes helped move some French troops and
evacuate civilians. The riots began when Zairean troops did not 
receive their monthly $11 pay. France and Belgium began withdrawing
their troops on 4 Oct 91.
 
=====
LATIN AMERICA
 
.....COLOMBIA resumed talks with the rebels on 26 Sept, but broke them
off on 1 Oct after a rebel ambush killed 7 people. 
 
.....CUBA plans to delete the glowing reference to the USSR in Article
12 of its constitution.
 
.....PERU: Clashes with the Shining Path rebels continued. There were
two ambushes on the 27th.
 
.....ANTARCTICA will be off limits to development or oil exploration
for another 50 years under a new (4 Oct) treaty.
 
======================================================================
 
                         FOR YOUR EYES ONLY
                         ==================
 
.....The following material is reprinted from issue #277 of the
biweekly military intelligence newsletter FOR YOUR EYES ONLY, dated
28 October 1991, and is Copyright (c) 1991 by Tiger  Publications, Box
8759, Amarillo, TX 79114.  This column represents a small fraction of
the material from a single bi-weekly issue.  Samples copies are $2;
subscriptions are $60 per year in the US,  Canada, APO, and FPO.
 
======================
 
FOUR FACTORS OF ISRAELI DEFENSE
WHY THEY CANNOT GIVE UP TERRITORY FOR PEACE
 
     Israeli generals hold four factors as the key to deterring an
Arab attack:
 
  *  Israeli nuclear arms. For political reasons, these can only be
used in a final "Doomsday" strike, or in retaliation for an attack
that kills large numbers of civilians. Their use against mass tank
attacks would be political suicide.
 
  *  Long-term Israeli technical superiority, based partly on US
support. Recent and continuing sales to Arab states by the US,
USSR, China, and North Korea have eroded this factor.
 
  *  The potential for massive US logistical support in the event of
an Arab attack (as in 1973). Given the recent tone of the Bush
Administration, Israel has begun to doubt just how much US support
would arrive, and how soon.
 
  *  The present (defensible) borders. Israeli generals do not want to
give up control of the Golan Heights and the high ground of the West
Bank, and predict disaster if this is done. As this is the only one of
the four principles that is not being eroded and  is totally under
Israeli control, Israel is unlikely to compromise.
 
=====
ARAB-ISRAELI NEGOTIATIONS: THE ISSUES
 
PALESTINE, WATER, JERUSALEM, THE GOLAN, THE PLO, LEBANON,
SETTLEMENTS, REFUGEE CAMPS.
 
     Neither the Israelis nor any Arab state are monolithic; all have
ranges of positions. The Israelis gravitate into two primary camps.
The moderates are willing to give up some of the occupied lands to the
Palestinians; the hardliners say that Israel has already given up
enough land and should keep the rest.  Virtually all Arabs want a new
Palestinian state to be formed from the occupied territories; the
primary division of opinion is between those who want this to be the
permanent resolution of the entire problem and those who want to use
such a state as a springboard for a final military assault on Israel.
The Israelis are concerned that it is impossible to tell an Arab
holding one position from an Arab holding the other, and that future
Arab governments may switch to the more radical position.
 
     This is the key point. Whatever solution is reached at the end of
the negotiations must leave Israel in a defensible position in case of
further warfare. These two conditions are difficult to reconcile.
 
  *  PALESTINIAN STATE: The possible creation of a Palestinian state 
is the center of the argument and reinforces the idea that some Arabs
hold such a state to be little more than a military spearhead to 
destroy Israel. The West Bank is, generally speaking, the "high 
ground" in the region, and giving up all of it would put most of 
Israel within range of Arab artillery. Many Israelis believe that the
original League of Nations Mandate gave them all of what is now Israel
and Jordan, and that by "giving up" Jordan they have the right to keep
the rest. (The official Israeli position is that Jordan, with a Bedouin
minority ruling a Palestinian majority, IS "the Palestinian state" and
another one isn't needed. The most radical Israelis use this as the
basis of their plan to eject the Palestinians from the occupied
territories.) Most Arabs believe that Jordan was never a real part of
geographic-Palestine and that the land west of the Jordan River should
be divided into an Israeli and a Palestinian state. The hardline
Israelis want to set up an autonomous zone in part of the West Bank
and Gaza, under local government but with no military forces or
foreign diplomatic contacts. This group contends that the majority
of Palestinians want to accept this arrangement, but are kept from
doing so by the radical Hamas and PLO groups, which intimidate the
moderates through murder. (No Israelis want to annex all of the
occupied territories since this would give the Palestinians the vote
and in time a majority.) The more moderate Israelis see some form of
compromise that would create a Palestinian state from part of the
Occupied Territories, with the Jewish settlements occupying the high
ground and Israeli military control of the Jordanian-Palestinian
border to insure that no military weapons can enter.
 
  *  THE PLO: Israel refuses to talk with the PLO or to allow the PLO
to have any part of the eventual settlement. They contend that the PLO
has never been elected by the Palestinian people and is dominated by
the Arab governments that created it. Israel also regards the PLO as a
terrorist organization with only one goal: to destroy Israel. The
official Arab position is that the PLO is the "sole representative" of
the Palestinians.
 
  *  JERUSALEM is the single most holy place for Jews and the third
most holy for Moslems. Both want to control it for religious reasons.
The Israelis point out, correctly, that when the Arabs controlled the
shrines of East Jerusalem no Jews were allowed to worship there, but
since 1967 the Israelis have allowed all faiths to worship at the
sites and have blocked any attempts to replace Moslem shrines with
new Jewish ones. The Israelis have formally annexed East Jerusalem
and are moving in tens of thousands of Jews to bring the demographic
balance into their favor. Few if any Israelis would give up any
control of the city. Few if any Arabs would accept a Palestinian state
without East Jerusalem as its capital.
 
  *  GOLAN: Syria has insisted that there can be no peace without the
return of the Golan Heights. The vast majority of Israelis oppose
doing so on the basis that Israel becomes militarily indefensible
without control of that ridge. Israel has, in effect, annexed the
Golan and is building new settlements there as quickly as possible to
make the occupation permanent. The land is clearly Syrian, and only
the most radical Zionists make any pretense of a historical Israeli
claim. (Critics charge that Israel simply wants to grab as much land
as possible.) The basis of the Israeli demand to retain control there
is that, when Syria had the heights, it used them to bombard northern
Israel. (The Israelis, whose national psyche demands control of their
own fate, have rejected plans for a demilitarized area under Syrian
control. A massive Syrian tank attack could cross any such zone before
Israel could react.) Syria insists that these bombardments were
conducted because Israel was building settlements in areas inhabited
by Arabs prior to the 1948 war that, under the 1949 ceasefire, were to
be the subject of future negotiations. Syria insists that, since it
has given up the idea of Arabs returning to the pre-48 areas in
Israel-proper, it has no reason to bombard Israel. Another factor is
the considerable amount of ground water in the Israeli-occupied
sector.
 
  *  SOUTHERN LEBANON: Israeli troops have occupied southern Lebanon
to prevent various Palestinian groups from using that territory to
fire rockets and artillery into northern Israel. In theory, Israel
could withdraw if there was a functional Lebanese government with the
political will and military power to prevent further such attacks.
Lebanon is trying to assert that control over its own territory, and
feels Israel is interfering.
 
  *  GROUND WATER is a problem all over the world, and even more so in
the arid Middle East. Without ground water from the West Bank, Israel
would face a major shortage of water. If Israel abandoned the entire
West Bank, wells in that region could be pumped at full capacity,
pulling water from underground aquifers in Israel and pulling sea
water into Israeli wells, ruining them. Israel has nearly gone to war
twice over joint Syrian-Jordanian programs to dam tributaries of the
Jordan River. Israel is as unlikely to accept Arab control of its
water supply as the Arabs are to export the water.
 
  *  REFUGEE CAMPS: Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are in
refugee camps in Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon. The Arab position is that
these people fled the fighting in 1948 (and later), and they should be
moved to the eventual Palestinian state. The Israeli position is that
these people voluntarily left when Arab countries called for them to
get out of the way of attacking Arab armies, and that they should be
absorbed into the populations of the countries that host the camps.
Some of these people fled homes that are now in Israel-proper, but 
even the Arab states have long since given up the idea that the people
could return to those areas. Israel does not want their substantial
numbers added to the populations of the West Bank and Gaza and wants
to avoid having people from those camps in any Palestinian delegation
as that would indicate some right for them to return. Israel does not
want Palestinians living in camps in the occupied territories to move
out and settle undeveloped land in those territories. There is also
the little known fact that between 1948 and 1958, most Arab countries
forced their long-standing Jewish communities to flee to Israel and
confiscated their homes and property in the process. Any eventual
settlement would have to at least appear to address the two sides of
the issue.
 
  *  ISRAELI SETTLEMENTS: The settlements issue has become paramount of
late because of the aggressive Israeli policy to build new ones. The
Arabs, who want ALL of the occupied territory (if not more) converted
into a Palestinian state, view the settlements as an obstacle because
they indicate an Israeli intention to either keep all of the land or
at least enough of it to militarily dominate the remainder.  Any
Israeli government that signed a peace treaty requiring the
dismantling of the settlements and relocation of the people would face
an impossible political backlash.
 
=====
ARMOR PROFILE: M93 FOX NBC RECON VEHICLE
 
     The German-built Fox NBC (Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical)
reconnaissance vehicle was selected by the US Army in 1988, with 
initial deliveries expected in 1992. The Germans delivered several
dozen of the vehicles to US forces in Saudi Arabia from their own
stocks due to the military emergency. Troops there called them 
"Winebagoes" because of their relatively luxurious accommodations 
(bucket seats, air conditioning, etc.)
 
     The Fox is designed to survey areas where NBC weapons have been
used in order to determine the type of contamination, how rapidly it
is dissipating (if at all), and the extent of the contaminated area.
Fox vehicles were attached to maneuver battalions as early warning
vehicles because their built-in laboratories could analyze any agents
used on US troops.
 
     The vehicle is 7.28m long (23.9 feet), 2.99m wide (9.8 feet), and
2.44 m high (8 feet). It weighs 16.9 tons empty and 18.7 tons combat
loaded. It has a three-man crew (driver, commander, systems operator)
but can accommodate 1-3 more personnel if needed. The 320hp liquid-
cooled diesel engine provides a speed of 100km/hr (65mph) on roads.
With 103 gallons of fuel, it has a range (on roads) of 800km (500
miles). It can climb a 70% slope. The six wheels are all powered, and
the vehicle is amphibious. The hull is proof against small arms fire
and fragments, but can be penetrated by 14.5mm and larger cannons.
 
     The US Army received its first US-built Fox Nuclear-Biological-
Chemical reconnaissance armored vehicles on 11 Oct.
 
=====
SOVIET MILITARY FORCES IN TRANSITION
 
     This year's edition of the annual Pentagon book on Soviet forces
includes these interesting developments:   
 
  *  The SH-11 Gorgon anti-ballistic missile is replacing the SH-1
Galosh. It is designed for exo-atmospheric intercepts and based at
Moscow.
  *  The new air-launched AS-X-19 Koala cruise missile appears to be
related to the SS-NX-24 Scorpion, which is a copy of the US Tomahawk.
  *  Gorbachev said he was canceling an air-launched short-range
nuclear missile. This may be a development of the AS-16 Kickback,
which is itself going into service with Tu-22M Backfire bombers.
  *  New production of Tu-95 Bear-H cruise-missile bombers has reached
a total of 80 aircraft in service. 
  *  Production and deployment of the Tu-160 Blackjack continues, but
at a slower rate. 
  *  A new electro-optically guided standoff missile, the AS-13, is in
service with Su-24 Fencer strike bomber regiments.
  *  About 75% of the current Soviet fighter force consists of
fourth-generation aircraft such as the MiG-29 and Su-27. 
  *  Over 65% of the tanks west of the Urals are the most modern 
types: T-64B, T-72/74, and T-80.
  *  To comply with the INF Treaty, the Soviets have replaced the
self-propelled 122mm 2S1 howitzers in some divisions with ancient 
towed 85mm guns, which are not included in treaty limits. Tank
battalions in motor rifle regiments have been cut from 40 tanks to 31.
Nine new aircraft regiments have been formed from Su-24s and MiG-29s
and assigned to the Navy (outside treaty limits).
 
=====
ARMOR PROFILE: T-55-AM2B; LAST AND BEST OF THE IRON DOG
 
     The last of the dozens of variants of the T-55 appears to have
been the best. No T-55-AM2Bs were built as new vehicles; all were
converted from existing tanks. The T-55-AM2B is the ultimate variant,
the most that could be gotten from the venerable chassis. (Crew
conditions remain cramped.)
 
     Protection was improved with nearly 5 tons of add-on armor,
including horseshoe modules on the turret and applique plates on the
hull. The glacis plate was strongly reinforced, and hollow spaces
within the extra armor can be filled with sand or water to provide
enhanced protection from shaped-charge weapons. Additional plates were
welded to the bottom of the hull. Six-layer armor-fabric skirts 
protect the tracks and pre-detonate shaped-charge weapons. To
compensate for the added weight (41.5 tons combat loaded, compared to
36 tons for the original version), the engine was replaced with a
diesel engine that provided another 70hp compared to the original
design. A folding mast on the turret rear provides cross-wind sensors
with laser-detection. The cross-wind data is input into the ballistic
computer. If the laser detectors sense an enemy laser rangefinder (or
missile-guiding laser), the crew is warned to move the tank
immediately.
 
     Firepower was improved with a computer and laser rangefinder, but
the key improvement was the 9K116 laser-riding guided missile system.
Fired through the 100mm cannon, the missile (designated 9K117) follows
the laser beam to the target. Maximum range is 4,000m. The beam is
narrowed during missile flight so that the missile can continue to
detect the edge of the beam and maneuver back to the center. While the
missile's penetration (1,000mm) is inadequate against modern tanks, it
would be deadly against missile vehicles and even helicopters.
 
     Some analysts are concerned that demilitarization of thousands of
old T-55 chassis could simply be the first step to their conversion to
this (or a more improved) variant.
 
=====
INDIAN NAVY EXPANDING INTO REGIONAL POWER
 
     India is rapidly expanding its Navy with the goal of becoming the
dominant power in the region.
 
  *  India has two light aircraft carriers and has contracted with
France for the construction of three medium carriers.
  *  India has 16 destroyers and frigates and is building six larger
destroyers. India is negotiating for modern Soviet destroyers.
  *  Eight modern Soviet Kilo-class diesel submarines (two more are on
order) have replaced the eight older Foxtrots. Two German Type-209+
submarines were purchased, but the construction of two more in India
met with technical problems, and the last two of the intended class of
six were cancelled in favor of the two additional Kilos.
  *  Eight old Osa-II Soviet-built missile boats are in service, but
these are rapidly being replaced by locally-built copies of the Soviet
Tarantul; the class may reach 30. There are also three Nanuchka-IIs,
but these have proven unsatisfactory, and further orders were
cancelled.
  *  Eight old Soviet-built Petya anti-submarine frigates are being
replaced by new locally-built Khukri-class frigates. Additionally,
India has received two Pauk-class ASW corvettes from the USSR and has
three more on order. 
  *  Twenty-two minehunters are in service, and a new class of 10 are
being built locally.
  *  India has eight Polish-built Polnocny-class landing ships, is
building eight larger ships of the Margar class, and plans to follow
those with six helicopter landing ships. This would allow India to
conduct amphibious operations at division level.
  *  The helicopter inventory will double between 1985 and 1995. Eight
modern Soviet Tu-142M Bear-F recon planes are replacing six old IL-38
May patrol planes.
 
=====
SOVIET WING-IN-GROUND AIRCRAFT
 
     The Soviets have unveiled their wing-in-ground effect aircraft
programs and are seeking investors for commercial derivatives. WIG
aircraft fly only 100 feet or so above the surface, using the cushion
of dense air under their huge wings for extra lift (allowing gigantic
cargos with good fuel economy). The most successful Soviet design is
the A.90.150, which is 58 meters (190 feet) long and has a wing
span of 31.5m (103 feet). It has a maximum weight of 125 tons with a
maximum payload of 25 tons. The A.90.150 uses a gigantic turbo-prop
engine on top of the rudder for power and two NK-8 jet engines inside
the nose (blowing down and under the wings) for lift.
 
=====
DUTCH ARMY ORDER OF BATTLE
 
     The Royal Netherlands Army will be totally reorganized over the
next decade, losing half of its tanks.
 
  *  The two divisions will be converted from three brigades of three
battalions to two brigades of four battalions. Each brigade (12th and
13th in the 1st Division, 42nd and 43rd in the 4th division) will have
two tank and two mechanized battalions, plus a battalion of 20
self-propelled M109 155mm howitzers. The division will have a total of
40 M109s, 48 towed 155s, and 9 MLRS rocket systems. The divisions will
be based in the Netherlands.
  *  The 11th Armored Brigade will become the 11th Airmobile Brigade 
of three light infantry battalions. It will be a part of a
multinational NATO division. 
  *  The 41st Armored Brigade will become the 41st Light Brigade (tank
battalion, mechanized battalion, two armored cavalry battalions) and
will be based in Germany as part of a combined British-Dutch-Belgian
corps.
  *  All 486 Leopard-I tanks will be discarded.
 
=====
ADVANCED AIRCRAFT PROGRAMS: B-2, C-17, JIAN-XIN
 
     B-2 BOMBER: Air Force Chief of Staff McPeak said that the Soviets
can, in some conditions and with some radars, detect a stealth
aircraft, but not well enough to target weapons on it.
 
     C-17 AIRLIFTER completed its 10th test flight on 10 Oct.
 
     JIAN-XIN: The Chinese Jian-Xin "new fighter" is using technology
originally developed in Israel for use on the Lavi fighter.
 
=====
AIR-TO-GROUND ORDNANCE
 
     SOVIET KMG-U BOMBLET DISPENSERS fit on standard Warsaw Pact 500kg
bomb racks. Each holds 48 AO-2.5 bomblets. The bomblets are about 
7.3kg each, and have four semi-circular pop-out fins. The dispensers
are mounted in pairs, with the inner pair set to release bomblets
straight down and the outer pair to release them outward.
 
     THE US AIR FORCE now plans to use the I-2000 penetrating bomb for
attacking runways rather than develop the new DAACM weapon. With the
collapse of the Warsaw Pact, there are few reinforced runways on the 
US target list, and the existing Durandals will be adequate for
standard thickness runways. While the 2000# weapon will make only one
crater, it will be a gigantic one, and the I-2000 can penetrate any
conceivable runway. Moreover, it is already in the inventory and needs
no development program.
 
     SLAM: The Navy successfully tested an improved version of the
Harpoon Standoff Land-Attack Missile at White Sands on 21 Oct. The
improvements make remote targeting easier. 
 
=====
ADVANCED MISSILE PROGRAMS
 
     SOVIET SA-10B GRUMBLE anti-aircraft missiles have successfully
shot down Soviet missiles simulating Tomahawk cruise missiles and 
Lance ballistic missiles.
 
     NORTH KOREA denied Japanese press reports that it was developing
a new missile with a range of 900km, enough to reach Japan, and said
that the Japanese were inventing the story as an excuse to expand into
a military power.
 
     HARPOON-1D: The first flight test of a Harpoon anti-ship missile
with the Block-1D guidance system was successfully completed on 
4 Sept; it struck a ship target from a range of 50 miles. The 1D
version is two feet longer, the extra space being fuel for double the
original range. The second test was completed successfully on 14 Oct,
when the missile made a course change in mid-flight and struck a
decommissioned destroyer.
 
     CONGRESS is considering a proposal to include a "fire enabling
security microchip" in future Stinger and TOW missiles (among other
types). This chip could disable the missile (via a remote signal) or
require a combination code before the missile can be fired.
 
     SA-15 TOR: The new Soviet SA-15 Tor anti-aircraft missile system
is capable of shooting down precision-guided artillery shells and
rockets from multiple-rocket launchers.
 
=====
NUCLEAR TESTS FOR SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER
 
  *  14 Sept: US, 20-150kt, Nevada, observed by 23 Soviet scientists
  *  19 Sept: US, less than 20kt, Ranier Mesa (Nevada), Distant Zenith
  *  18 Oct: US, 20-150kt, Yucca Flats (Nevade), "Lubbock" 
 
     Anti-nuclear groups report that the Soviets are conducting at 
least 10 nuclear tests on Novaya Zemlya island each year.
 
     US technicians now have access to a seismic station at 
Novosibirsk to monitor Soviet nuclear tests.
 
=====
GROUND COMBAT UPDATE
 
     M4 CARBINE: The US Army has type-classified the M4 carbine (a
version of the M16A2 rifle that is 10 inches shorter) and will begin
issuing it in 1994. The M4 will replace all of the ancient M3
submachineguns and some rifles and pistols.
 
     TRI-GAT: Britain has given France and Germany six months notice
that it will not participate in the Long Range version of the TRI-GAT
multi-national anti-tank missile.
 
     JAVELIN is the new name for the US Army's Advanced Anti-Armor
Weapon System-Medium. Javelin scored its fourth hit in four flight 
tests, striking a head-on camouflaged tank at 500m.
 
     MILES: Loral has received a $35 million contract to field the
first new-generation MILES system (which uses laser beams to simulate
weapons fire, and sensors attached to soldiers and vehicles to record
hits). The new SAWE/MILES-II system will, for the first time, be able
to simulate artillery, mines, and other area effect weapons (by using
satellite location systems to determine if target vehicles are 
actually in the impact zones or minefields).
 
     SWITZERLAND is testing a compact 140mm smoothbore tank cannon
developed at the Thun arsenal. The gun is intended to replace the 
105mm gun in Swiss Pz-68 tanks.
 
     GERMANY is upgrading former East German BMP-1 Infantry Fighting
Vehicles for continued use. The dismounted rifle squad has been 
reduced to six because eight men were unsafe in the crowded
compartment. The notoriously unreliable autoloader for the 73mm gun 
has been removed; the gunner will have to load his own shells. The
ammunition is being remanufactured because the old Soviet stocks exude
nitroglycerine and are unsafe. The balky clutch has been replaced. To
date, only two vehicles have been upgraded.
 
     GERMANY has formed a special commission to investigate reports
that the Fritz Werner Company illegally sold materials to Libya for 
use in a missile production plant. The plant is located near Tripoli
and disguised as a pipe production factory. Some of the German
equipment was seized in mid-July when it was about to be loaded on a
Libyan cargo ship.
 
     JAPAN has sent officials to the US to investigate charges that 
the Japan Aviation Electronics company had sold guidance flywheels for
Sparrow missiles to Iran during the First Persian Gulf War.
 
=====
NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT: NATO TO CUT 80% OF NUCLEAR ARMS
 
     US: Joint Chiefs Chairman Powell said (9 Oct) that the US must
retain air-dropped nuclear weapons in Europe for the foreseeable
future, but the US insisted that this was not a negative response to
Gorbachev's package of disarmament ideas, which included a call for
discarding air-delivered weapons.
 
     The US told the Soviets that it was willing to discuss "limits
on the scope and timing" of the deployment of an SDI system.
 
     BRITAIN said (10 Oct) that it would take part in the global
nuclear reductions, but would never abandon a minimal nuclear 
deterrent force.
 
     PAKISTAN called for a worldwide ban on nuclear testing to 
preserve the environment. 
 
     NATO announced on 18 Oct that it would discard 700 of the 1,400
nuclear aircraft bombs, ultimately leaving the other 700 such bombs
as the last allied nuclear weapons in Europe. With the elimination of
1,400 artillery shells and 700 short-range missiles, this amounts to
an 80% cut in Western nuclear weapons in Europe. The NATO ministers
did not feel that a complete elimination of such weapons was possible.
 
     THE UN has discussed a proposal for a nuclear-free zone in
Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
 
     Secretary Cheney said he found merit in a Soviet proposal to
store tactical nuclear aircraft bombs in bunkers away from the
aircraft that would carry them.
 
=====
ESPIONAGE
 
     SWEDEN expelled a Soviet diplomat for industrial espionage.
 
     AIR FRANCE denied an NBC News report that bugged seats and
stewardesses trained as spies were used to steal industrial secrets
from US business executives using the airline.
 
     FIFTH MAN: John Cairncross revealed himself as the "fifth man" in
the Cambridge spy ring (which included Kim Philby, Sir Anthony Blunt,
Guy Burgess, and Donald Maclean). This was confirmed by the KGB.
 
     MOSCOW EMBASSY: The US House refused to accept plans to build a
secure annex next to the new embassy that is riddled with Soviet
listening devices, and told the Administration to find another
solution, which would be limited to the $100 million cost of the annex
plan.
 
     TAIWAN: US courts convicted Douglas Tsou (a translator for the
FBI) of espionage for passing to Taiwan information the FBI received
from a Chinese agent in the US.
 
     IRAN released American John Parris after he served five years in
prison (half his sentence) for espionage.
 
     NORWAY: Counterintelligence Chief Svein Urdal resigned after the
press reported that he had allowed Israeli agents to question PLO
members who had defected this year. The interrogations were conducted
in Arabic, and the Palestinians were not told that Israelis were 
asking the questions.
 
     CHINA announced it had arrested two Taiwanese spies.
     NORWAY expelled eight Soviet diplomats for spying.
 
=====
LESSONS FROM THE GULF WAR
 
     Information, field expedients, stories, and lessons from the
troops:
 
  *  The LAV (Light Armored Vehicle) needs some improvements: The 
night sight doesn't work in fog or dust and should be replaced with a
thermal sight. Shell cases from the M240 machinegun fall into the
commander's hatch and the feed tray for the 25mm gun. Better storage
for packs and the spare tire are needed as these items tend to bounce
around on rough terrain. The laser rangefinder, now powered by scarce
batteries, should be run from vehicle power. A compass and infrared
searchlight would be useful, and the Global Positioning System would 
be particularly useful in the desert. The hatches cannot be closed 
from inside the vehicle. Speakers for the radios should be added to 
the troop compartment so that the dismounts can keep up with the
situation.
 
  *  M1 tank crews have suggested several improvements, including: Add
an anti-personnel grenade launcher. Put the auxiliary power unit under
armor. Add a second radio to company commander tanks. Create an
intermediate weapon or anti-personnel main gun round since the 120mm
cannon has only HEAT and SABOT rounds (used to destroy tanks). Add an
external phone.
 
  *  Congress has drawn its own lessons from the Gulf War and has
applied them to improving the Marine Corps: 60 Army M1A1 tanks will be
given to the Marines in addition to the 215 they had planned to buy; 
27 MLRS rocket artillery systems will be funded; another $550 million
will be spent on Maritime Pre-Positioned ships and equipment for them;
one Army JSTARS ground station will be purchased for each Marine
division; $35 million will be spent on night vision equipment; two
(damaged) AV-8Bs will be upgraded to the Harrier 2 Plus configuration
to prove if the concept is viable.
 
  *  Navy aircraft launched more than a hundred 400-pound gliders into
Iraqi defenses in the first day of the air war. The gliders were
carried on standard bomb racks. They could be launched more than 50
miles from their targets and programmed to make a series of maneuvers.
The Iraqis exposed their air defense weapons to engage the decoys and
were quickly hit by bombs and missiles. The Air Force used target
drones in a similar manner.
  *  Soldiers from the 1st Brigade of the 24th Mechanized Division 
shot down an Iraqi helicopter using two AT-4 anti-tank rockets. This
occurred at Al-Talil airfield on the third day of the campaign.
 
=====
US AIR FORCE PERFORMANCE IN THE GULF WAR
 
  *  F-111: 4,000 sorties, 85% mission capable rate (MCR), principle
weapon GBU-12 glide bomb, destroyed 1,500 targets.
  *  B-52: 1,624 sorties, 81% MCR, 25,700 tons of bombs, 1 lost
(non-combat).
  *  F-15E Strike Bomber: 48 aircraft deployed, 2,200 sorties, 95.9%
MCR, most effective pinpoint bomber, one air-to-air kill (laser-guided
bomb against a hovering helicopter).
  *  EF-111A electronic warfare aircraft: 900 sorties, 87.5% MCR.
  *  F-4G Wild Weasel: 2,500 defense suppression sorties, 87% MCR.
  *  F-15C (and D) superiority fighters: 5,900 sorties by 120 deployed
aircraft, 94% MCR, scored 34 of the 39 US air-to-air kills (25 with
Sparrow, 8 with Sidewinder, 1 by maneuvering the opposing MiG-29 into
a mountain).
  *  F-16: 249 deployed, 13,500 sorties, 95.2% MCR. Primarily used for
air-to-ground attack with Maverick, one air-to-air kill.
  *  A-10: 8,100 sorties, 95.7% MCR, scored the only two US air-to-air
kills by gunfire (both against helicopters).
  *  F-117A: About 30 deployed, but all data is classified. There are
unconfirmed reports one was lost.
 
=====
UNITED STATES
 
     THE US AIR FORCE: The House voted to build 48 F-16s per year in
FY92, FY93, and FY94, with no specific end to the program. The Senate
wants to end the program with the FY91 purchase (of 108), using the
FY92 funds for 24 F-117As and the FY93-94 funding for other programs.
 
     The Air Force expressed little interest in a Soviet offer to sell
MiG-29s at $25 million each for aggressor training units. The high 
cost of maintaining a small number of planes was given as the reason.
 
     THE US NAVY apologized (17 Oct) for accusing gunner's mate 
Clayton Hartwig of causing the 1989 explosion on the battleship Iowa
that killed 47 men.
 
     The Navy has had to cancel the Flight-III variants of the DDG-51
destroyers (which would have added a helicopter hangar) and will have
to reduce the capabilities from the Flight-II ships to save money.
     The Navy plans to buy four (perhaps six) Roll-On/Roll-Off vehicle
transport ships to improve strategic sealift.
 
=====
UNITED NATIONS
 
     Japan, Venezuela, Hungary, Morocco, and Cape Verde were elected
to replace Cuba, Yemen, Romania, Ivory Coast, and Zaire on the 
Security Council as of 1 Jan. 
 
=====
SOVIET UNION
 
     The Soviet Navy plans to scrap 29 of the 69 nuclear submarines in
the Pacific Fleet, but gave no timetable. 
 
     The Soviet Air Force wants to sell aircraft overseas for hard
currency and use the proceeds to fund its operations.
 
     An elite Soviet mechanized division composed mostly of ethnic
Ukrainians has refused orders to leave Eastern Europe for Russia and
wants instead to go to the Ukraine and join the new Army there.
 
=====
EASTERN EUROPE
 
     INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION for Eastern Europe has declined 20% over 
the last two years, largely due to disruptions caused by the collapse
of the Soviet trading network.
 
     POLAND and HUNGARY have agreed to allow each other to make
unrestricted reconnaissance flights over their territory. They hope 
the concept will expand to all European countries.
 
     CZECHOSLOVAKIA banned all arms sales to the Middle East on 9 Oct
to support the US peace talks. This includes the controversial sale of
T-72s to Syria.
 
     BULGARIA and Germany signed a friendship treaty on 9 Oct 91. The
opposition Union of Democratic Forces drew the largest number of votes
(38%) on 13 October. The former communists, who received 48% in the
1990 elections, received only 32% this time.
 
=====
WESTERN EUROPE
 
     NATO might become a general European security organization,
according to Secretary-General Woerner. The Soviets hailed the idea.
     CANADA has dropped its prohibition on admitted homosexuals from
serving in its military.
     Canada will reduce the number of generals and admirals by 20% as
part of force restructuring over two years.
     CYPRUS held its Victory-91 military exercises on 14-18 Oct with
7,000 troops.
     GERMANY said 27 countries wanted to buy or receive the equipment
of the former East German Army.
 
=====
MIDDLE EAST
 
     EGYPT: German military officers will travel to Egypt to provide
training in technical subjects.
     ISRAEL: PM Shamir is likely to call new elections if the 
bilateral portion of the peace conference deadlocks.
 
     KUWAIT, which has 40 F-18s on order, wants another 35.
 
     LIBYA has denied Indian claims that Libya had tried to buy 
nuclear technology from that country a decade ago.
 
     MOROCCO has sent 200,000 colonists into the Western Saharra to
manipulate the UN referendum, according to the rebel Polisario Front.
 
     PLO: The resignation of master terrorist Abu Abbas from the PLO
Executive Committee appears to be largely cosmetic. Abbas is now Chief
Deputy to the committee, is still consulted on important matters, and
has received additional funding for his faction (which has troops
training in Libya).
 
     SAUDI ARABIA is demanding US help in building a large modern Army
as a condition of basing equipment for one or two US divisions in the
area. The US is concerned that this might upset the balance of forces
in the region.
 
=====
ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
 
     BURMA: A government offensive in the Irrawaddy delta killed 75
Karen rebels from 5-15 Oct.
 
     CHINA: Troops along the Soviet border went on alert during the
coup and have remained on alert due to the possibilities of "chaos"
causing mass migrations of refugees.
 
     JAPAN continued to debate offering its troops for UN missions,
and declared that their Prime Minister could overrule UN commanders
and withdraw the troops in the event that a ceasefire collapsed and
placed the troops in danger. Opposition from liberals was so strong
that the issue was delayed to the next session of parliament.
 
     MALAYSIA: The US is surveying the Lumut shipyard as one possible
replacement for the Subic Bay Naval Base.
 
     NORTH KOREA rejected a South Korean plan for two republics under
a federal union, demanding a non-aggression pact first.
 
     China denied South Korean reports that it was involved in the
North Korean nuclear weapons program.
 
     A North Korean diplomat who recently defected said that it was 
Kim Jong Il (son of President Kim Il Sung) who was running the country
and who had decided to enter the UN. 
 
     North Korea claimed that three South Korean warships entered its
territorial waters on 2 Oct.
 
     North Korea was unable to obtain financial aid from China.
 
     PHILIPPINES has ordered three 370-ton fast-attack gunboats from
Australia for $172 million.
 
     TAIWAN: Opposition leaders formally called (13 Oct) for Taiwan to
abandon its claims to be the legitimate government of China and 
declare itself an independent country.
 
     THAILAND wants to buy 20 M109 self-propelled 155mm howitzers from
the US. These howitzers, enough to form a single battalion, would be
Thailand's first self-propelled guns. Thailand also wants four used
Knox-class frigates.
 
     VIETNAM: Geologists have discovered three deposits of uranium ore
in Quang Nam-Da Nang province.
 
=====
AFRICA
 
     CHAD: Four soldiers were killed in an unsuccessful attack on an
arms depot by rebels on 13 Oct. At least 40 were killed in clashes
between rebel and government troops on the 14th; a curfew was 
declared. Opponents claimed that President Deby started the coup
against himself to identify his opponents.
 
     NIGERIA has cut the Special Presidential Guard battalion by 70%
and will disband it within a few months.
 
     SOUTH AFRICA has developed a ballistic missile able to put small
satellites into orbit, according to the local newspaper Citizen. The
government denied the report. 
 
     The military wing of the ANC, known as Umkhonto we Sizwe (Spear 
of the Nation, or MK in Dutch), continues to build and train military
units in Lesotho, Zambia, and other nations. These forces could be 
used for the ultimate in political leverage, or "merged" with the 
South African Army when a coalition government is formed, or (the
"nightmare scenario") reflect that the ANC is not in control of its
military wing.
 
     SUDAN reported 14 Oct that 10,000 SPLA rebels had surrendered and
taken amnesty over the previous week.
 
     TOGO: Clashes between northern and southern tribes signalled yet
another coup attempt on 10 Oct. Military forces loyal to President
Gnassingbe Eyadema were trying to oust Prime Minister Koffigoh. 
Eyadema was stripped of military power on the 12th.
 
     ZIMBABWE announced 15 Oct it would accede to the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty.
 
=====
LATIN AMERICA
     CUBA: The Party Congress recommended direct election of the
National Assembly.
 
     HAITI: The UN, OAS, and EC continued demanding that President
Aristide be restored to power.

                 Maintaining the Pressure on Saddam
                            by Austin Bay
                            =============
 
A year ago Saddam Hussein threatened to burn half of Israel. Now he is
hassling inspectors about boarding helicopters. Unfortunately, some
critics of the Bush Administration (with a penchant for missing the
obvious) need reminders of just how devastating was the UN's victory
over Saddam.
 
Yet Saddam remains on the political scene, a small but irritating
evil. Paradoxically, he retains a limited power in Iraq because the
UN coalition and the US are acting with foresight. The Bush
Administration continues to play for what history may regard as "The
Big Win" : Sticking by the UN Security Council's resolutions and
establishing a historical precedent for unified, legal action against
an outlaw state. More than Saddam and Kuwait were at stake, for Desert
Storm provided the opportunity to establish the bonds and bounds of
collective military action in the post-Cold War world.
 
The Security Council resolutions didn't permit assassination of Saddam
or overthrow of the Baath government in Baghdad. If the coalition had
gone on to Baghdad -- if the American superpower had gone beyond the
"new rules" -- more would have  been lost than gained.
 
But going for the Big Win means maintaining the will, foresight, and
capability of dealing with Saddam. That means being prepared to act
politically, economically, and militarily. Though his ignorance of the
world continues to astonish, Saddam's apparent strategy has some 
logic: Hang on long enough, keep enough missiles and nuclear 
capability hidden and somewhere down the line Bush will quit. Once
again he banks on a failure of will.
 
There is abundant reason to maintain the economic sanctions and keep 
up the political pressure. At the moment Iraq is clearly in technical
violation of two Security Council resolutions (687 and 707), is in
violation of binding nuclear safeguards agreements with the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and has broken the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty. Moreover, Iraq continues to violate the
rules of basic subtraction. The Iraqis claim that they had only 62
SCUDs left at the end of the Gulf War, and that these have been
destroyed. The Russians, however, have told the UN they sold Baghdad
800 SCUD missiles. Subtract the 81 fired during the Gulf War and the
250-or so fired by Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War, and around 400
missiles remain missing. Baghdad has no explanation.
 
Let's agree that the best result would have been an anti-Saddam coup
engineered but he Iraqi army last March -- but the Baath secret police
prevented that. Yet the slow but steady "legal attack" of the UN has
not been a failure. A picture has begun to emerge of just who Iraqi
intelligence's "cut-out" (phony) corporations were in Saddam's effort
to build a nuclear bomb. Each week more "sources" open up and talk.
Daily, the world is learning lessons about how to create and enforce
proliferation and export controls. At one time Saddam may have been
confident that if he kept his head down he would be able to go back to
that network of Germans, Austrians, and Italians who sold him the
nuclear technology. Now, he can no longer be so sure.
 
Which may explain Saddam's increasing belligerence. The Iraqis have,
in the last week, begun to make physical threats against UN inspection
teams. One source, close to the IAEA, mentioned his grave personal
concern for friends on the nuclear inspection team now in Iraq. A
missile technical team arrives in Iraq next weekend with the mission
of destroying Saddam's 900 mm "supergun." They could become hostages.
Saddam might resort to that kind of "test of will."
 
Saddam has a terrible record when it comes to repeating past mistakes.
Threatening to take inspectors hostage would not only justify but 
would require a harsh UN response. The first reaction should look
something like this: US helicopters will be deputized to the UN. The
copter-borne UN teams will make simultaneous surprise inspections of
Iraqi facilities and suspected weapons dumps. The transport 
helicopters will be escorted by attack helicopters and overwatched
allied fighters and bombers. US, British, and possibly Turkish 
special forces army units would be on-call for aid if confrontations
occur on the ground.
 
Should an Iraqi Army revolt occur, with the UN providing air cover,
well, that might be a coincidence.
 
Thanks to UN action, Saddam has already been dropped fifty notches as
a threat to the world, and the last two or three, though hard, are not
the toughest. The truly tough steps have already been taken - in 
August 1990 and January 1991. Living by the legal precedent of the UN
resolutions, while difficult, has also been the wisest strategy. But
the UN and the US cannot risk a failure of will. In the next two weeks
the UN may have to make one more hard decision -- and carry it 
through.
 
copyright September 24, 1991   by Austin Bay